PROBABILITY EXPLORER
Uncertain fractions. Possible galaxies.
Choose distributions for unknown stage probabilities and inspect the resulting spread.
This model multiplies uncertain stage fractions. Its settings and intervals are separate from the Planet-history model, which follows one scenario through time. Their headline values summarize different assumptions and quantities.
Origin priors and the optional Earth update →Signaling worlds active now
—An uncertainty range, not a measured population.
chance of no others
active now
One model. Many possible galaxies.
Expected counts across model draws · logarithmic horizontal axis
WHAT SETS THE LIMIT?
Uncertainty by step
EXISTENCE ≠ DETECTION
A quiet sky can mean many things.
A civilization must exist at the right time, produce a signal, and be within the reach of a search.
THE ASSUMPTION WORTH CHALLENGING
How much ignorance belongs in a prior?
The choice of probability distribution is part of the model. Compare it openly.