In an era where the cosmos beckons, humanity stands at the precipice of the ultimate adventure - space exploration. As we cast our gaze upwards, the twinkling stars whisper secrets of what lies beyond. We embark on a journey, not just across the physical void but into the depths of our own potential.
"The Celestial Symphony"
Our spacecraft, like modern-day Arks, traverse the vast, silent oceans of space. We witness celestial bodies dancing in a cosmic ballet, governed by the unyielding laws of physics. Each planet and star tells a story - a narrative woven into the fabric of the universe. As we explore, we find our place in this grand symphony, a tiny yet integral part of a magnificent whole.
"Gardens of the Galaxy"
We discover exoplanets, each a garden of unimaginable beauty and diversity. Terraforming technologies breathe life into barren lands, creating new Edens. These worlds, once mere points of light, become homes to future generations, each planet a testament to human ingenuity and resilience. In these gardens, life flourishes, painting the universe with the vibrant colors of biodiversity.
"Echoes of Ancient Voyagers"
Amidst the silence of space, we find relics of civilizations long gone. Ancient spacefaring races that once charted these unknown realms, leaving behind remnants of their existence. These echoes from the past guide us, offering lessons and warnings. As we piece together these cosmic puzzles, we realize the transience of civilizations, including our own, and the importance of leaving a legacy that endures through epochs.
"The Cosmic Crucible"
Space, in its vastness, is a crucible for human character. Confronted with challenges of unprecedented scale, we forge new alliances, transcending earthly divisions. In the face of cosmic dangers, our petty conflicts seem trivial. Space exploration becomes a unifying mission for humanity, a common goal that elevates us beyond our limitations and differences.
"The Paradox of Significance"
As we journey further, we confront the paradox of our own significance. In the grand tapestry of the universe, we are but specks on a canvas of infinite breadth. Yet, this realization does not diminish us; instead, it elevates our purpose. We understand that our actions, however small, ripple across the cosmos, contributing to the unfolding story of the universe.
"The Infinite Library"
We encounter knowledge in its most primal form - the universe as an infinite library, each star and planet a tome of cosmic secrets. Our understanding of physics, biology, and philosophy is revolutionized. The laws of nature are rewritten as we uncover truths that redefine existence.
"The Siren Call of Black Holes"
Black holes, those enigmatic devourers of light, beckon us with their siren call. We peer into these abysses, seeking to unlock mysteries that lie at the edge of comprehension. What we find challenges the very fabric of reality, revealing pathways to other dimensions, other universes.
"The Legacy of Starfarers"
As we venture into the unknown, we leave behind more than just footprints on distant worlds. Our legacy is a beacon for future explorers, a testament to the unquenchable human spirit. We become the ancient voyagers whose relics will someday guide others.
"The Eternal Odyssey"
In space exploration, we find our eternal odyssey - a perpetual journey of discovery, challenge, and wonder. As we navigate the
cosmic seas, the story of humanity unfolds in new chapters, written in the stardust of galaxies. Our voyage is not just about reaching new horizons but about understanding our place in the universe and the responsibility that comes with it.
"The Dance of Nebulas"
We encounter nebulas, those cosmic nurseries where stars are born and die. Here, in the kaleidoscope of light and gas, we witness the cycle of cosmic life and death. It's a humbling reminder of the impermanence and continual renewal that marks the universe. In these celestial cradles, we find the raw materials for future explorations and the seeds of new worlds.
"The Whispering Dark Matter"
In the shadowy realms of space, we grapple with the mystery of dark matter. This unseen force, which binds galaxies together, yet eludes our grasp, becomes a focal point of our scientific quests. Unraveling its secrets, we inch closer to understanding the fundamental workings of the universe, a pursuit that might one day unlock new forms of energy or transportation.
"The Unity of Purpose"
As Earth recedes into a pale blue dot, our petty differences and conflicts seem increasingly trivial. Space exploration fosters a unity of purpose, a collective endeavor that transcends national, cultural, and ideological boundaries. In the shared pursuit of knowledge and survival, humanity finds a common language and vision, rewriting our societal and political narratives.
"The Echoes of Time"
In the silence of space, we find not loneliness, but a connection to the cosmos. The light from distant stars is an echo from the past, reaching out to us across eons. We become part of this cosmic dialogue, a continuum of exploration and discovery that transcends time. Each discovery is a note in the timeless symphony of the universe, a symphony in which we are both composers and listeners.
"The Horizon of Infinity"
As we push the boundaries of the known universe, we are constantly reminded of the infinite. Space exploration is not just a journey outward but also inward, a quest for self-understanding and enlightenment. The vastness of space mirrors the depths of human potential - boundless, mysterious, and ripe with possibilities.
In this odyssey beyond the stars, we are not just explorers or scientists; we are poets and dreamers, reaching out to the universe with open hands and curious hearts. The journey is endless, the discoveries boundless, and the story of
humanity, woven into the fabric of space and time, is ever-evolving. As we voyage through the cosmos, we are not merely traversing physical distances; we are bridging the expanse of our collective imagination and spirit.
In this grand journey, every planet explored, every star charted, and every mystery unraveled, brings us closer to understanding the ultimate question that has haunted humanity since the dawn of time: What is our place in this vast universe? The answer, ever elusive, lies not in the stars we reach, but in the journey itself - a journey that defines and redefines our essence as a species.
"The Inheritance of the Cosmos"
We come to understand that the universe is not just a frontier to conquer, but an inheritance to cherish. As custodians of this cosmic legacy, our journey through space becomes a journey of stewardship, caring for the wonders and mysteries of the cosmos as we unravel them.
"The Voyage of Continuity"
And so, our odyssey continues, a perpetual expedition into the unknown, propelled by an insatiable curiosity and a relentless drive to push beyond the next horizon. Each generation of starfarers inherits this quest, carrying the torch of exploration and discovery into the endless expanse of space.
In the infinite canvas of the universe, humanity etches its narrative - a tale of resilience, innovation, and the unyielding quest for knowledge. It is a tale that transcends time and space, a testament to the indomitable human spirit that seeks, always, to reach for the stars.
Great writing. This was fun to read. You kind of touch on it in the first scenario, but it’s really hard for me to imagine any future that’s isn’t post-human. The rapid pace of technological advancement in fields like AI, biotechnology, and nanotechnology is likely to result in significant changes to what it means to be human. Eventually everyone will accept these changes because the cost of not embracing them will be too high. Perhaps we won’t reach God status in the more pessimistic scenarios, but our existence will be profoundly different from the world we live in today.
A sufficiently "aligned" AI scenario might preserve the down-to-earth human social relations that most people consider to make life worthwhile. So I could easily imagine something not post-human.
"Simulation Theory" looks the most realistic to me, and it is already happening. Also it doesn't seem to contradict "Dumb Matter" I guess?
“Tragedy of Taiwan" may lead to something like a Cyberpunk 2077 future, probably? Instead of a singular dictatorship, several warring corporations and governments have access to top-tier tech, all else feed on the scraps downstream of those.
And yes, thank you for writing this piece, it evokes and stirs many half-formed thoughts.
You do not consider S risk. Unbounded upside in terms of CEV? but downside is just death? just meaningless paperclips?
NO. A single bit shift is enough to invert the CEV values into horrors that are equally unimaginable. The stakes of this game are far far higher than anyone realises.
Corrigibility is kinda what you mean when you say indifference, that sort of passivity is antinatural to the capacity - consequentialist reasoning which makes such processes useful.
I think in most of these a single overmind is assumed. Seems likely there could be many AGI agents competing with each other, with different goals. Wars will be fought within our infrastructure between those that exploit and those that defend. Different agents will accumulate more resources than others, and then others will take those resources too. What does a world of not one AGI, but thousands, millions of competing goals look like?
I think there are economies of scale / network effects that push towards a single overmind. As an analogy look at how much bigger/valuable Tech companies are relative to Retail, or other traditional industries. Tech has higher returns to scale, requires fewer employees, and has less diseconomies of scale so you see more concentrations / less fragmentation. I think you extrapolate out to AI and the same trends are likely to continue which is why a lot of these analyses assume a single overmind.
That being said, it would be interesting to explore more of what a world with multiple competing AGIs would look like.
I am quite surprised how the basic Matrix canon scenario does not feature in the imagination of the current day AGI enthusaists maybe because it has become low-brow. (The Matrix canon scenario is more than just the movies. Watch this video to know what I mean: How the Machines Took Over Humans - Matrix Lore Explained https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TdW5lMl06io and The Human Race Capitulation | MATRIX EXPLAINED https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i7nqpkIDFBo)
A time-capsule-worthy estimation of the possibilities before us.
If I had the resources to do so I would set up inter-disciplinary forecasting teams to try and argue the likelihoods of each of these against one another. My instinct would be that the most realistic potential outcome brooks some combination of Simulation, Taiwan, and Dust; but then, depending on the amount of Simulation that one apportions, the shape assumable by the elements of Taiwan and Dust will change dramatically, right?
Another option, potentially much closer to the experience of the average person:
Life goes on like normal, with more talk of AI, but normal in many ways. Some jobs are disrupted, some aren't, politics becomes a bit more weird, but maybe things start to quiet down after couple of years as institutions adapt to changing technologies. Maybe the institutions don't adapt, and things instead get progressively weirder. Anyways, one day, you are going about your life in your house, when you hear a small explosion and a window breaking, followed by the sound of quadcopter rotors. Before you can have more than a few words of internal monologue there's another flash and you find yourself on the floor, stunned and unable to move your legs or sit up. As the adrenaline wears off, you begin to feel the searing pain of a few dozen wounds throughout your torso and lower extremities. You try to process what's going on but can't form many coherent thoughts because of dropping blood pressure and pain. You get perhaps a few minutes of experience, in which you start to feel cold, before succumbing to abyssal nonexistence.
poetic - one of the least GPT-generable essays I've read
"Odyssey Beyond the Stars"
In an era where the cosmos beckons, humanity stands at the precipice of the ultimate adventure - space exploration. As we cast our gaze upwards, the twinkling stars whisper secrets of what lies beyond. We embark on a journey, not just across the physical void but into the depths of our own potential.
"The Celestial Symphony"
Our spacecraft, like modern-day Arks, traverse the vast, silent oceans of space. We witness celestial bodies dancing in a cosmic ballet, governed by the unyielding laws of physics. Each planet and star tells a story - a narrative woven into the fabric of the universe. As we explore, we find our place in this grand symphony, a tiny yet integral part of a magnificent whole.
"Gardens of the Galaxy"
We discover exoplanets, each a garden of unimaginable beauty and diversity. Terraforming technologies breathe life into barren lands, creating new Edens. These worlds, once mere points of light, become homes to future generations, each planet a testament to human ingenuity and resilience. In these gardens, life flourishes, painting the universe with the vibrant colors of biodiversity.
"Echoes of Ancient Voyagers"
Amidst the silence of space, we find relics of civilizations long gone. Ancient spacefaring races that once charted these unknown realms, leaving behind remnants of their existence. These echoes from the past guide us, offering lessons and warnings. As we piece together these cosmic puzzles, we realize the transience of civilizations, including our own, and the importance of leaving a legacy that endures through epochs.
"The Cosmic Crucible"
Space, in its vastness, is a crucible for human character. Confronted with challenges of unprecedented scale, we forge new alliances, transcending earthly divisions. In the face of cosmic dangers, our petty conflicts seem trivial. Space exploration becomes a unifying mission for humanity, a common goal that elevates us beyond our limitations and differences.
"The Paradox of Significance"
As we journey further, we confront the paradox of our own significance. In the grand tapestry of the universe, we are but specks on a canvas of infinite breadth. Yet, this realization does not diminish us; instead, it elevates our purpose. We understand that our actions, however small, ripple across the cosmos, contributing to the unfolding story of the universe.
"The Infinite Library"
We encounter knowledge in its most primal form - the universe as an infinite library, each star and planet a tome of cosmic secrets. Our understanding of physics, biology, and philosophy is revolutionized. The laws of nature are rewritten as we uncover truths that redefine existence.
"The Siren Call of Black Holes"
Black holes, those enigmatic devourers of light, beckon us with their siren call. We peer into these abysses, seeking to unlock mysteries that lie at the edge of comprehension. What we find challenges the very fabric of reality, revealing pathways to other dimensions, other universes.
"The Legacy of Starfarers"
As we venture into the unknown, we leave behind more than just footprints on distant worlds. Our legacy is a beacon for future explorers, a testament to the unquenchable human spirit. We become the ancient voyagers whose relics will someday guide others.
"The Eternal Odyssey"
In space exploration, we find our eternal odyssey - a perpetual journey of discovery, challenge, and wonder. As we navigate the
cosmic seas, the story of humanity unfolds in new chapters, written in the stardust of galaxies. Our voyage is not just about reaching new horizons but about understanding our place in the universe and the responsibility that comes with it.
"The Dance of Nebulas"
We encounter nebulas, those cosmic nurseries where stars are born and die. Here, in the kaleidoscope of light and gas, we witness the cycle of cosmic life and death. It's a humbling reminder of the impermanence and continual renewal that marks the universe. In these celestial cradles, we find the raw materials for future explorations and the seeds of new worlds.
"The Whispering Dark Matter"
In the shadowy realms of space, we grapple with the mystery of dark matter. This unseen force, which binds galaxies together, yet eludes our grasp, becomes a focal point of our scientific quests. Unraveling its secrets, we inch closer to understanding the fundamental workings of the universe, a pursuit that might one day unlock new forms of energy or transportation.
"The Unity of Purpose"
As Earth recedes into a pale blue dot, our petty differences and conflicts seem increasingly trivial. Space exploration fosters a unity of purpose, a collective endeavor that transcends national, cultural, and ideological boundaries. In the shared pursuit of knowledge and survival, humanity finds a common language and vision, rewriting our societal and political narratives.
"The Echoes of Time"
In the silence of space, we find not loneliness, but a connection to the cosmos. The light from distant stars is an echo from the past, reaching out to us across eons. We become part of this cosmic dialogue, a continuum of exploration and discovery that transcends time. Each discovery is a note in the timeless symphony of the universe, a symphony in which we are both composers and listeners.
"The Horizon of Infinity"
As we push the boundaries of the known universe, we are constantly reminded of the infinite. Space exploration is not just a journey outward but also inward, a quest for self-understanding and enlightenment. The vastness of space mirrors the depths of human potential - boundless, mysterious, and ripe with possibilities.
In this odyssey beyond the stars, we are not just explorers or scientists; we are poets and dreamers, reaching out to the universe with open hands and curious hearts. The journey is endless, the discoveries boundless, and the story of
humanity, woven into the fabric of space and time, is ever-evolving. As we voyage through the cosmos, we are not merely traversing physical distances; we are bridging the expanse of our collective imagination and spirit.
In this grand journey, every planet explored, every star charted, and every mystery unraveled, brings us closer to understanding the ultimate question that has haunted humanity since the dawn of time: What is our place in this vast universe? The answer, ever elusive, lies not in the stars we reach, but in the journey itself - a journey that defines and redefines our essence as a species.
"The Inheritance of the Cosmos"
We come to understand that the universe is not just a frontier to conquer, but an inheritance to cherish. As custodians of this cosmic legacy, our journey through space becomes a journey of stewardship, caring for the wonders and mysteries of the cosmos as we unravel them.
"The Voyage of Continuity"
And so, our odyssey continues, a perpetual expedition into the unknown, propelled by an insatiable curiosity and a relentless drive to push beyond the next horizon. Each generation of starfarers inherits this quest, carrying the torch of exploration and discovery into the endless expanse of space.
In the infinite canvas of the universe, humanity etches its narrative - a tale of resilience, innovation, and the unyielding quest for knowledge. It is a tale that transcends time and space, a testament to the indomitable human spirit that seeks, always, to reach for the stars.
Great writing. This was fun to read. You kind of touch on it in the first scenario, but it’s really hard for me to imagine any future that’s isn’t post-human. The rapid pace of technological advancement in fields like AI, biotechnology, and nanotechnology is likely to result in significant changes to what it means to be human. Eventually everyone will accept these changes because the cost of not embracing them will be too high. Perhaps we won’t reach God status in the more pessimistic scenarios, but our existence will be profoundly different from the world we live in today.
A sufficiently "aligned" AI scenario might preserve the down-to-earth human social relations that most people consider to make life worthwhile. So I could easily imagine something not post-human.
This was great. Reminds me Einstein’s Dreams or Invisible Cities. I’d gladly read a book of this.
"Simulation Theory" looks the most realistic to me, and it is already happening. Also it doesn't seem to contradict "Dumb Matter" I guess?
“Tragedy of Taiwan" may lead to something like a Cyberpunk 2077 future, probably? Instead of a singular dictatorship, several warring corporations and governments have access to top-tier tech, all else feed on the scraps downstream of those.
And yes, thank you for writing this piece, it evokes and stirs many half-formed thoughts.
You do not consider S risk. Unbounded upside in terms of CEV? but downside is just death? just meaningless paperclips?
NO. A single bit shift is enough to invert the CEV values into horrors that are equally unimaginable. The stakes of this game are far far higher than anyone realises.
technological capacity plus indifference: so proactive creativity is a tool against this human weakness.
Corrigibility is kinda what you mean when you say indifference, that sort of passivity is antinatural to the capacity - consequentialist reasoning which makes such processes useful.
I think in most of these a single overmind is assumed. Seems likely there could be many AGI agents competing with each other, with different goals. Wars will be fought within our infrastructure between those that exploit and those that defend. Different agents will accumulate more resources than others, and then others will take those resources too. What does a world of not one AGI, but thousands, millions of competing goals look like?
I think there are economies of scale / network effects that push towards a single overmind. As an analogy look at how much bigger/valuable Tech companies are relative to Retail, or other traditional industries. Tech has higher returns to scale, requires fewer employees, and has less diseconomies of scale so you see more concentrations / less fragmentation. I think you extrapolate out to AI and the same trends are likely to continue which is why a lot of these analyses assume a single overmind.
That being said, it would be interesting to explore more of what a world with multiple competing AGIs would look like.
You'd get a kick out of All Tomorrows
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/All_Tomorrows
lol, a universe so small I can be comment #4 on Roon's blog posted 4 hours ago
or Twitter is just fucking Substack super hard
Marvelous
Incredible writing.
Looking forward to the future, I hope whatever breakthrough's bound to happen happens within our lifetimes.
I am quite surprised how the basic Matrix canon scenario does not feature in the imagination of the current day AGI enthusaists maybe because it has become low-brow. (The Matrix canon scenario is more than just the movies. Watch this video to know what I mean: How the Machines Took Over Humans - Matrix Lore Explained https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TdW5lMl06io and The Human Race Capitulation | MATRIX EXPLAINED https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i7nqpkIDFBo)
🫡
A time-capsule-worthy estimation of the possibilities before us.
If I had the resources to do so I would set up inter-disciplinary forecasting teams to try and argue the likelihoods of each of these against one another. My instinct would be that the most realistic potential outcome brooks some combination of Simulation, Taiwan, and Dust; but then, depending on the amount of Simulation that one apportions, the shape assumable by the elements of Taiwan and Dust will change dramatically, right?
Wtf Who is reading this crap?
Another option, potentially much closer to the experience of the average person:
Life goes on like normal, with more talk of AI, but normal in many ways. Some jobs are disrupted, some aren't, politics becomes a bit more weird, but maybe things start to quiet down after couple of years as institutions adapt to changing technologies. Maybe the institutions don't adapt, and things instead get progressively weirder. Anyways, one day, you are going about your life in your house, when you hear a small explosion and a window breaking, followed by the sound of quadcopter rotors. Before you can have more than a few words of internal monologue there's another flash and you find yourself on the floor, stunned and unable to move your legs or sit up. As the adrenaline wears off, you begin to feel the searing pain of a few dozen wounds throughout your torso and lower extremities. You try to process what's going on but can't form many coherent thoughts because of dropping blood pressure and pain. You get perhaps a few minutes of experience, in which you start to feel cold, before succumbing to abyssal nonexistence.
Goddamn I’m signing up for this. So much stuff that I wish I had written.